Bookmarking Auto on Info pages
Supporting Auto on Info
Home or
Site Layout or
Site Index or
Quick Jumps or
Search Engine Directory or
The MartAuto News, Analysis and Editorial
In
the U.S. in June 2006, Toyota Sales Surge to Set a New June Record; Legendary
Corolla Sales Soar; Honda Sales Squeak Past Previous June Record; Big Three
Sales Remain In or Near Friction-Free Free Fall, But GM's Prospect of Multiple
Bankruptcy Filings Dims
Auto on Info July 2006
In the U.S. in June 2006, Toyota Sales Surge to Set a New June Record; Legendary Corolla Sales Soar; Honda Sales Squeak Past Previous June Record; Big Three Sales Remain In or Near Friction-Free Free Fall, But GM's Prospect of Multiple Bankruptcy Filings Dims
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 14% in June 2006, over those of June 2005, to set a new June sales record. Its U.S. car sales soared 22%, and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 5%. Year to date, Toyota's U.S. cars sales are up 10% and its truck sales are up 9%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of June 2006, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among December 2005's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: June 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for June 2006 from June 2005 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 223,018 14.4% .90 Scion Division 15,837 23.2% N/A xA 2,411 15.7% N/A xB 5,964 46.5% N/A tC 7,462 11.3% N/A Toyota Division 179,495 15.1% .90 Passenger Car 101,932 21.5% N/A Avalon 6,608 -27.7% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 41,427 9.8% .90 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 37,311 38.7% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 9,696 0.8% .851 Yari 6,888 N/A N/A Light Truck 77,563 7.6% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 13,204 103.5% .93 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 13,381 -12.7% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (SUV) 10,436 -19.9% .981 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 6,366 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,647 4.1% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 228 -39.4% .91 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 8,822 -13.6% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 13,995 -2.3% .94 Lexus Division 27,686 6.3% .92 Passenger Car 15,842 23.6% N/A ES 3501 7,645 26.4% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 1,014 -55.7% .972 GS 300R6 1,771 -34.4% .933 GS 430 / 450h 420 -31.8% .932,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 531 -29.4% N/A IS 250 / 350 4,4614 980.1% .901,2 Light Truck 11,844 -10.4% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 9,6515 -3.6% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 1,787 -32.1% N/A LX 470 406 -29.4% .852 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The IS 250 had June sales of 3,253 and IS 350 - 1,208. 5The RX 350 had June sales of 8,461 and RX 400h - 1,190. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in December 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Quick Pick. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in June 2006 over June 2005 were the Lexus IS 250 / 350, up 980.1% to 4,461, the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle, up 103.5% to 13,204, the Scion xB, up 46.5% to 5,964, the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 38.7% to 37,311, the Lexus ES 350, up 26.4% to 7,645, the Scion xA, up 15.7% to 2,411, the Scion tC, up 11.3% to 7,462, and the Toyota Camry, up 9.8% to 41,427.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in June 2006 2006 Lexus IS 350 2006 Toyota RAV4 2006 Scion xB (No Icon Available) 2006 Toyota Corolla 2006 Lexus ES 350 2006 Scion xA (No Icon Available) 2006 Scion tC 2006 Toyota Camry XLE 2006 Toyota Camry Solara The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2006 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 23.2% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Corolla, up 38.7% in June, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through June 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 76.6%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 86.3% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through June 2006 were made in North America and 86.0% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through June 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX are more fortunate, as it appears that North American produced RXs account for only about two-thirds of the U.S. sold RXs. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its June 2006 U.S. auto sales rise a fraction of .1% to 126,449 to set a new June sales record. Its Honda division set a sixth consecutive new monthly record. Its U.S. car sales rose 4%, but its U.S. truck sales fell 5%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in June 2006 over June 2005 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Honda Civic Hybrid (a CR 2006 Top Pick, a CR 2006 All-Around-Competence-and-Safety Quick Pick, with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the second-highest category, and a CR 2006 crash protection rating in the highest category, also CR 2005 reliability, owner satisfaction, fuel economy, and overall Quick Picks), up 40.4% to 2,601, and the Honda Ridgeline pickup truck (a CR 2006 Top Pick, a CR 2006 All-Around-Use Pickup-Truck Quick Pick, with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category and with perfect scores on NHTSA's crashworthiness tests), up 9.3% to 3,918.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in June 2006 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid 2006 Honda Ridgeline The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2006 models. It should also be noted that Honda's new 4-door hatchback, the Fit, continued to be well received, with June sales totaling 3,747.
Through June 2006, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 7,708 vehicles, or 9.5%, and the Toyota RAV4 sport utility vehicle outsold the Honda CR-V by 2,961 vehicles, or 4.1%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1997-2001 RPA of .99 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1997-2001 RPA of .93 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .975) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (rather matching its early 2002 Reliability Percentrank of .53), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-American-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its June 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 3%. Its car sales rose 4% and its truck sales rose 2%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 19% in June 2006. Its U.S. car sales fell 25% and its U.S. truck sales fell 12%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its June 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 8%. Its car sales rose 16%, but its truck sales fell 16%.
In summary, the June 2006 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; U.S. sales by Toyota and Honda set June records, and U.S. sales by Subaru rose 3% and those by Mazda rose 8%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its June 2006 sales plunge 26%; however, its U.S. year-to-date market share went up a notch as Chrysler's fell a notch. This leaves General Motors with a year-to-date U.S. market share loss of only two notches, that is, two percentage points, from its final 2005 U.S. market share. An annual market share loss of only two percentage points is almost certainly sustainable for at least another half-decade without U.S. bankruptcy filings but with U.S. downsizing.
Furthermore, site manager views an annual market share loss by GM of more than two percentage points as highly unlikely, in part because GM marketing people, auto analysts, and nearly all of the news media have provided almost every imaginable explanation for rising Toyota sales and declining GM sales other than the great, decades-old, and irreducible quality gap between the two. (For reference, see Milestones in Automotive Quality, The Bottom Line on Auto Reliability, Extrapolation of the Great Gaps, Summary of the Best and Worst, Auto on Info, May 2002: "Another Data Analysis Pointing to Preeminent Toyota Durability," Auto on Info, February 2003: "Toyota Dominates the 2003 Pyramid Awards," Auto on Info, August 2005: "Speediest Dilapidations: General Motors Accounts for 16 of the 20 Worst," Auto on Info, January 2006: "Toyota Overwhelmingly Dominates Another Measure of Durability," Auto on Info, March 2006: "Toyota Reliability Takes Another Leap Up; Honda's Too; Toyota-GM Reliability Gap Sets Another Record: Will GM Bottom?") This suggests that GM marketing people, auto analysts, and most of the news media hold an unmitigated, deep and abiding contempt for the limited information-acquisition-and-assimilation skills of the sector of the U.S. population who currently own or have an interest in GM vehicles. Although only time will tell whether such contempt is warranted, from the persistence of the quality-gap omission, it seems safe to assume that little information trickles into the population sector owning GM vehicles and that the little information that trickles in is likely, in the main, not understood or easily understood. Such should provide GM with a valuable constraint on annual U.S. market share losses.
However, it should be noted that there appears to be at least one company, other legal entity, or organized group that is quite concerned that information may be gathered and understood by existing Big Three owners. Site manager estimates that at least 99.99% of the search phrases that yielded a page of Auto on Info in Google's top ten results 2 1/2 years ago no longer do. Although such a curtailment of information access is quite a compliment to Auto on Info's organization and presentation, reality is that as access has fallen so have Big Three sales, hardly a result that one would anticipate if Auto on Info played anything more than an inconsequential role in information dissemination among prospective Big Three consumers. (However, it may be that curtailing access to information may have had the opposite effect, as such makes information more valuable, confers power and authority on those who have it, and prompts many to share it. As a tactical matter, it would seem wiser to leave access unchanged and seek quickly to exploit the immediate defensive response, but wisdom may not be the hallmark of those employed by, or associated with, the Big Three.)
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its June 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 15%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its June 2006 U.S. auto sales fall a more modest 7%.
General Motors' year-to-date U.S. market share rose a notch and Chrysler's fell a notch. The following table provides the summary.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .23 .08 .08 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .17 .07 -.10 -.09 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .00 -.13 -.02 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM took another clobbering in June 2006; Hyundai's sales advanced 3% as GM's fell 26%.
U.S. June 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1997-2001 RPA of .43, fell 50%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1997-2001 RPA of .29, fell 11%.
In the niche markets, Porsche June 2006 U.S. auto sales rose 13%, BMW sales rose 3%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 14%. Old line European nobility continues to hang onto U.S. fealty.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for June 2006 over June 2005 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 26 selling days in June 2006 and 26 in June 2005.
Source for June 2006 auto manufacturer sales data: "June 2006 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, July 3, 2006, available at mlive.com's News Flash section.
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports June Sales with Strong Second-Quarter and First-Half Performance," July 3, 2006, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2006070346770
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Record June Total Vehicle Sales," July 3, 2006, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2006070354846&mime=asc
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for December 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2006, p. D4 (See "By WSJ's Lot-Stay Time, Made-in-Japan TMC Models Are Top 5 of Hottest 10," Auto on Info, January 2006.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
Sources for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability ratings of "most reliable": "Asian Auto Brands' Reliability Uneven," Christine Tierney, Detroit News, October 27, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/27/C01-362825.htm and "Asian Vehicles Rank Low in Survey," Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today at Detroit Free Press, October 27, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/reliable27e_20051027.htm (The list in the Detroit Free Press omits the Toyota Echo in its list of small car recipients of CR's 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. To see a breakdown by manufacturer and line, go to "Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan's Infiniti Overwhelm CR's 2006 Most Reliable List," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
Source for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability when expressed as "highest," "second-highest," "average," "second-lowest," or "lowest": "Reviews of the 2006 Models," Consumer Reports Best Buys for 2006 Buying Guide, pp. 154-176
Source for Consumer Reports' 2006 top-of-vehicle-category Quick Picks: "CR Quick Pick Recommendations," Consumer Reports, April 2006, p. 23
Related Articles March 2006:
