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In the Race to Quality and Out of Big Three Products, Australia Stalls and America Accelerates
By James B. Bleeker
In the U.S., from the April 30, 2004, year-to-date market shares to the 2005 year-end market shares, the Top Four - Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor Company, the Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., and Nissan Motor Company - gained two percentage points as the Big Three - General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG - lost two percentage points. However, in Australia, over the same period, the Top Four saw no gain in market share and the Big Three lost only one percentage point. The following tables summarize each nation's race to quality.
Table I: Market Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Top Four - Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan - and the Big Three - General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler - for Calendar Year 1995, Year-to-Date 2004 as of April 30, 2004, and Calendar Year 2005 and Natural Market Share Estimates, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1995
Group 1995 2004 YTD as of April 30, 2004 Year-End 2005 Natural Market Share Estimate* Distance to Natural Market Share as of December 31, 1995 Distance to Natural Market Share as of April 30, 2004 Distance to Natural Market Share as of December 31, 2005 Distance Traversed from 1995 to 2005 Top Four .18 .27 .29 .56 .38 .29 .27 .11 Big Three .74 .59 .57 .11 -.63 -.48 -.46 -.17 The Top Four are named such by their high reliability; the Big Three are named such by their 1960s size. *The Natural Market Share Estimate is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Data.
Table II: Market Shares of the Australia New Motor Vehicle Market for the Top Four - Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan - and the Big Three - General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler - for Calendar Year 1995, Year-to-Date 2004 as of April 30, 2004, and Calendar Year 2005 and Natural Market Share Estimates, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1995
Group 1995 2004 YTD as of April 30, 2004 Year-End 2005 Natural Market Share Estimate* Distance to Natural Market Share as of December 31, 1995 Distance to Natural Market Share as of April 30, 2004 Distance to Natural Market Share as of December 31, 2005 Distance Traversed from 1995 to 2005 Top Four .26 .35 .35 .56 .30 .21 .21 .09 Big Three .42 .32 .311 .11 -.31 -.21 -.20 -.11 The Top Four are named such by their high reliability; the Big Three are named such by their 1960s size. *The Natural Market Share Estimate is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Data. 1 In the article "Australia Sets 2005 Sales Record but Falls Short of Goal," Alan Harman, WardsAuto.com, January 11, 2006, no mention was made of sales by the Chrysler Group and they were assumed to be 0 for purposes of computing Big Three market share. If the year-end 2005 market shares are treated as those prevailing at the end of June 2005 (the midpoint of 2005) and the year-to-date market shares as of April 30, 2004, as those prevailing at the end of February 2004 (the midpoint of this period), then between these two known market shares passed 1 year 4 months or 1 1/3 years. Over this period, the distance to natural market shares declined .04 ( (.29+.48)-(.27+.46) ) in the U.S. and .01 ( (.21+.21)-(.21+.20) ) in Australia. Hence, over this time, the U.S. advanced toward the natural market shares at a rate of .03 per year while Australia advanced at a rate of only .0075. Or put differently, if the rates of advancement continues, Americans will reach the natural market shares in 24 1/3 years ( (.27+.46)/.03 ) and the stalled Aussies - in 54 2/3 years ( (.21+.20)/.0075 ), despite the fact that the Aussies need only a market shift of .41 (.21+.20) and the Americans need a market shift of .73 (.27+.46). Such a solid American shift toward quality of late is testament that the U.S. consumer is neither moribund nor addicted nor hopelessly anesthetized, even though the Aussies with their big lead may still win the race.
Source for Australian 2005 market shares: "Australia Sets 2005 Sales Record but Falls Short of Goal," Alan Harman, WardsAuto.com, January 11, 2006
Source for U.S. 2005 market shares: "In 2005, U.S. Consumer Shift to Quality Continues at Quickened Pace, But GM and Ford Avoid Disastrous Market Share Plunges with Big Discounts and Huge Financial Losses: Is a Big Three Product Worth a Dime?" Auto on Info, January 2006
Source for 1995 and April 30, 2004, year-to-date U.S. and Australian market shares: "Australia May Reach Natural Market Share Eight Years Sooner Than U.S.," Auto on Info, May 2004
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Ideas for Literature Gifts History Lit Kievan Russia (1973) by George Vernadsky and from Yale University Press European Alliances and Alignments, 1871-1890 (1977) by William Leonard Langer The Maritime History of Massachusetts, 1783-1860 (1979) by Samuel Eliot Morison The Making of Modern Japan (2000) by Marius B. Jansen Natasha's Dance: A Cultural History of Russia (2003) by Orlando Figes Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, New Edition (2005) by Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (2004) by Jared Diamond The Peloponnesian War (2004) by Donald Kagan Washington's Crossing (2004) by David Hackett Fischer and from Oxford University Press Paul Revere's Ride (1995) by David Hackett Fischer and from Oxford University Press Undaunted Courage: Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson and the Opening of the American West (1997) by Stephen E. Ambrose Albion's Seed : Four British Folkways in America (2005) by David Hackett Fischer and from Oxford University Press Fitzgeralds and the Kennedys: An American Saga (1991) by Doris Kearns Goodwin The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century (2005) by Thomas L. Friedman For more historical literature, click here. For a broader selection of fine literature, click here. Biographies Beethoven: Biography of a Genius (1972) by George Richard Marek Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman (1993) by James Gleick Alexander Hamilton (2004) by Ron Chernow John Adams (2001) by David McCullough Benjamin Franklin (2003) by Edmund S. Morgan Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln (2005) by Doris Kearns Goodwin Theodore Roosevelt: A Strenuous Life (2001) by Kathleen Dalton For more biographies, click here. For a broader selection of fine literature, click here.
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