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In
the U.S. in January 2006, Reliable Two Sales Soar to Set New January Sales
Records; GM and Ford Dodge Plunge with
Huge, Premature Fleet Sales, but GM's Market Share Still Drops a Notch; Toyota
RAV4 Overtakes Honda CR-V with Dramatic Sales Surge
Auto on Info February 2006
In the U.S. in January 2006, Reliable Two Sales Soar to Set New January Sales Records; GM and Ford Dodge Plunge with Huge, Premature Fleet Sales, but GM's Market Share Still Drops a Notch; Toyota RAV4 Overtakes Honda CR-V with Dramatic Sales Surge
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 14% in January 2006, over those of January 2005, to set a new January sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 14%, and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose nearly an identical amount, 13%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of January 2006, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among December 2005's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: January 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for January 2006 from January 2005 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 160,625 14.0% .90 Scion Division 10,701 19.7% N/A xA 2,058 19.0% N/A xB 3,836 13.6% N/A tC 4,807 25.4% N/A Toyota Division 130,266 14.5% .90 Passenger Car 66,937 10.7% N/A Avalon 6,946 365.9% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 27,440 -3.3% .90 Corolla1r,R6 24,887 2.9% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 7,654 37.5% .851 Light Truck 63,329 18.8% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 9,382 120.4% .93 Sienna*,1s,1f (minivan) 11,774 26.9% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,748 -2.2% .981 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,512 -1.1% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 290 -37.6% .91 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 9,459 8.5% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 12,410 31.5% .94 Lexus Division 19,658 7.7% .92 Passenger Car 10,979 36.9% N/A ES 3301 3,333 -25.7% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 1,190 -43.8% .972 GS 300R6 1,699 291.5% .933 GS 430 279 310.3% .932,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 405 -12.3% N/A IS 300 4,073 799.1% .901 Light Truck 8,679 -15.1% N/A RX 330*^,1,1s and 400hR6 (SUV) 6,189 -10.0% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 1,946 -24.4% N/A LX 470 544 -31.0% .852 Note: Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in December 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in January 2006 over January 2005 were the Lexus IS 300 sedan and hatchback, up 799.1% to 4,073, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 365.9% to 6,946, the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 310.3% to 279, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 291.5% to 1,699, the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle, up 120.4% to 9,382, Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 37.5% to 7,654, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 31.5% to 12,410, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 26.9% to 11,774, the Scion tC, up 25.4% to 4,807, the Scion xA, up 19.0% to 2,058, the Scion xB, up 13.6% to 3,836, and the Toyota Tundra pickup truck, up 8.5% to 9,459.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in January 2006 2006 Lexus IS 300 2006 Toyota Avalon 2006 Lexus GS 430 (No Icon Available) 2006 Lexus GS 300 2006 Toyota RAV4 2006 Toyota Prius 2006 Toyota Tacoma 2006 Toyota Sienna 2006 Scion tC 2006 Scion xA 2006 Scion xB 2006 Toyota Tundra The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 19.7% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Prius, up 37.5% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, a CR 2005 Top Pick, and a recipient of a Consumer Reports 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. (In October, Toyota announced a Special Service Campaign to recall some 2004-2005 Priuses for repair of a software glitch and expressed confidence that the repair will solve the Prius' stalling problem. See "Prius Has Stalling Glitch, NHTSA Commences Investigation," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Toyota Recalls a Batch of Priuses in the U.S., Japan, and Here and There, a Batch of Scion tCs in the U.S., and a Bunch of Various Models in Southeast Asia and Australia," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
The reliability of the North-American-made Toyota Avalon has improved in recent years (a 2000-2001 RPA of .94 vs. a 1995-1999 RPA of .82); however, for model year 2006 Consumer Reports accords the Avalon a predicted short-term reliability of only average, something of a disaster for a Toyota. Only time will tell what its actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 in January 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 87.6%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 93.4% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. in January 2006 were made in North America and 90.6% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. in January 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX 330 are more fortunate; only about half of the RX 330s sold in the U.S. in January 2006 were made in North America. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon have no hope at all, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its January 2006 U.S. auto sales soared 21% to set a new January sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 25% and its U.S. truck sales rose 15%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in January 2006 over January 2005 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the hybrid Honda Civic (CR 2005 reliability, owner satisfaction, fuel economy, and overall Quick Picks), up 170.7% to 3,165, the gas-propelled Honda Civic (with a 1996-2000 RPA of .95 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and with the Honda Civic EX also being a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 47.0% to 21,623, the Acura TSX (a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 42.7% to 3,204, the Honda S2000 convertible (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA and with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category), up 23.4% to 396, the Honda Element (with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category), up 14.2% to 3,729, the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick, and with the Pilot EX-L edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 13.1% to 9,999, and the Honda Odyssey minivan (1997-2001 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability only in the middle category, also a CR 2005 Top Pick and an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal), up 10.3% to 10,257.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in January 2006 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid 2006 Honda Civic coupe and sedan 2006 Acura TSX 2006 Honda S2000 2006 Honda Element 2006 Honda Pilot 2006 Honda Odyssey The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. In January 2006, Honda minivan and small-sport-utility-vehicle sales dominance over Toyota came to an end with a 26.9% sales gain by the Toyota Sienna and a 120.4% sales surge by the Toyota RAV4; the Sienna minivan outsold the Honda Odyssey by 1,517 vehicles, or 12.9%, and the RAV4 outsold the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle by 57 vehicles, or 0.6%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1997-2001 RPA of .99 and a CR predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1997-2001 RPA of .93. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .975) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (rather matching its early 2002 Reliability Percentrank of .53), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-Ameican-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, saw its U.S. auto sales fall by 1% in January 2006. Its U.S. car sales rose 2%, but its U.S. truck sales fell 4%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in January 2006 over January 2005 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category), up 2002.2% to 1,892, the Nissan Murano midsized sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the Murano SL edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 28.6% to 6,988, the Infiniti G35 sport sedan (no 1997-2001 RPA, but CR accords the G35 sport sedan and coupe a 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 24.5% to 2,425, the Nissan Sentra sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .63 and with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 19.9% to 9,807, and the Nissan Xterra sport utility vehicle (1997-2001 RPA of .74), up 12.8% to 5,625.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in January 2006 2006 Infiniti M45 2006 Nissan Murano 2006 Infiniti G35 2006 Nissan Sentra 2006 Nissan Xterra Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its January 2006 U.S. auto sales rise less than 1%. Its car sales rose 12% but its truck sales fell 20%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its January 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 7%. Its car sales rose 17%, but its truck sales fell 19%.
In summary, the January 2006 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota and Honda were excellent, with increases of 14% and 21%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its January 2006 sales rise 6%. However, the sales gain was due to a 30% jump in modestly or negligibly profitable fleet sales; retail sales fell 7%. Consequently, in the coming months, plunges in the vicinity of 10% should be in order.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its January 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 5%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its January 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 3%, but it too benefited from a huge increase in fleet sales (up 21%) and 10% plunges may be par for future months.
Price cuts and incentives benefited Ford and GM little in January 2006; only premature fleet purchases saved them from their string of monthly declines. However, even with premature fleet sales, GM's U.S. market share dropped a notch as Toyota's and Nissan's gained a notch over 2005 shares.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .14 .23 .09 .07 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .16 .09 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .25 .04 -.21 -.09 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .17 .07 -.10 -.09 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM took another battering in January 2006; Hyundai's sales soared 16% as GM's advanced 6% on premature fleet sales.
U.S. January 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1997-2001 RPA of .43, rose 34%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1997-2001 RPA of .29, fell 13%.
In the niche markets, Porsche January 2006 U.S. auto sales rose 48%, BMW sales rose 12%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 3%. Old line European nobility had a good month.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for January 2006 over January 2005 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 24 selling days in January 2006 and 24 in January 2005.
Source for January 2006 auto manufacturer sales data: "U.S. Auto Sales for January 2006," the Associated Press, February 1, 2006, available at Yahoo! News and "Automakers Jan Sales Up, Fleet Sales Surge," Poornima Gupta, the Associated Press, February 1, 2006, available at Yahoo! News
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports January Sales," February 1, 2006, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2006020154538
Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Announces January Sales," February 1, 2006, available at http://www.nissannews.com/corporate/news/current/20060201093616.shtml
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Record January Sales," February 1, 2006, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2006020150249&mime=asc
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for December 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2006, p. D4 (See "By WSJ's Lot-Stay Time, Made-in-Japan TMC Models Are Top 5 of Hottest 10," Auto on Info, January 2006.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
Sources for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability ratings of "most reliable": "Asian Auto Brands' Reliability Uneven," Christine Tierney, Detroit News, October 27, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/27/C01-362825.htm and "Asian Vehicles Rank Low in Survey," Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today at Detroit Free Press, October 27, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/reliable27e_20051027.htm (The list in the Detroit Free Press omits the Toyota Echo in its list of small car recipients of CR's 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. To see a breakdown by manufacturer and line, go to "Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan's Infiniti Overwhelm CR's 2006 Most Reliable List," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
Source for Cons
