Bookmarking Auto on Info pages
Supporting Auto on Info
Home or
Site Layout or
Site Index or
Quick Jumps or
Search Engine Directory or
The Mart or
The Links or
Yahoo! Autos. Get a Quote.Auto News, Analysis and Editorial
In the U.S. in
October 2005, The Reliable Two Set New October Sales Records, Subaru Sales
Advance, and GM and Ford Sales Plunge Again
Auto on Info November 2005
In the U.S. in October 2005, The Reliable Two Set New October Sales Records, Subaru Sales Advance, and GM and Ford Sales Plunge Again
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 5% in October 2005, over those of October 2004, to set a new October sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 13%, but its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 4%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of October 2005, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2005's Hottest Ten (actually dozen, by tie), per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. (The Wall Street Journal publishes the Hottest Ten list rather irregularly, likely because it changes so little over time.) That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: October 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for October 2005 from October 2004 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 173,086 5.2% .90 Scion Division 13,392 31.8% N/A xA 2,640 20.4% N/A xB 4,070 -0.8% N/A tC 6,682 73.0% N/A Toyota Division 136,363 3.7% .90 Passenger Car 77,364 9.5% N/A Avalon 8,195 222.7% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 32,323 -6.5% .90 Corolla1r,R6 26,870 0.2% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 9,939 68.6% .851 Light Truck 58,999 -3.0% N/A Sienna*,1s,1f (minivan) 11,081 -6.5% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 9,063 -12.1% .981 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,058 -5.9% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 319 -49.4% .91 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 8,919 -2.0% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 14,486 37.0% .94 Lexus Division 23,331 2.2% .92 Passenger Car 12,113 15.4% N/A ES 3301 4,507 -22.0% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 1,637 -39.4% .972 GS 300R6 2,279 349.1% .933 GS 430 366 201.6% .932,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 761 -10.9% N/A Light Truck 11,218 -9.1% N/A RX 330*^,1,1s and 400hR6 (SUV) 8,012 -1.4% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 2,549 -21.1% N/A LX 470 657 -33.1% .852 Note: Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in October 2005 over October 2004 were the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 349.1% to 2,279, the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 201.6% to 366, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 222.7% to 8,195, the Toyota Scion tC, up 73.0% to 6,682, the Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 68.6% to 9,939, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 37.0% to 14,486, and the Scion xA, up 20.4% to 2,640.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in October 2005 2006 Lexus GS 300 2006 Lexus GS 430 2006 Toyota Avalon 2006 Scion tC 2006 Toyota Prius 2006 Toyota Tacoma 2006 Scion xA The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 31.8% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Prius, up 68.6% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, a CR 2005 Top Pick, and a recipient of a Consumer Reports 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. (In October, Toyota announced a Special Service Campaign to recall some 2004-2005 Priuses for repair of a software glitch and expressed confidence that the repair will solve the Prius' stalling problem. See "Prius Has Stalling Glitch, NHTSA Commences Investigation," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Toyota Recalls a Batch of Priuses in the U.S., Japan, and Here and There, a Batch of Scion tCs in the U.S., and a Bunch of Various Models in Southeast Asia and Australia," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
The reliability of the North American made Toyota Avalon has improved in recent years (a 2000-2001 RPA of .94 vs. a 1995-1999 RPA of .82); however, for model year 2006 Consumer Reports accords the Avalon a predicted reliability of only "average," something of a disaster for a Toyota. Only time will tell what its actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through October 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 70.2%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 96.8% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America and 93.7% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX 330 are more fortunate; only about 2/3 of the RX 330s sold in the U.S. in 2005 were made in North America. All of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. were made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its October 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 4%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in October 2005 over October 2004 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Acura TSX (a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 52.3% to 2,742, the Acura RL sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .89 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability of only average), up 22.9% to 1,550, and the gas-propelled Honda Civic (1997-2001 RPA of .91 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and a recipient of a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability of "Most Reliable" and with the Honda Civic EX also being a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 26.0% to 23,680.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in October 2005 2006 Acura TSX 2006 Acura RL 2006 Honda Civic coupe and sedan The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Through October 2005, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 11,259 vehicles, or 8.4%, and the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 64,719 vehicles, or 106.3%. Both the 2006 CR-V and the 2006 RAV4 have been accorded a predicted short-term reliability of "Most Reliable" by Consumer Reports. However, with regard to reliability, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .975) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (rather matching its early 2002 Reliability Percentrank of .53), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, saw its U.S. auto sales fall by 19% in October 2005. Its U.S. car sales fell 23% and its U.S. truck sales fell 15%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in October 2005 over October 2004 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 1357.7% to 2,231, and the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle(1997-2001 RPA of .85), up 58.7% to 4,918.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in October 2005 2006 Infiniti M45 2006 Nissan Pathfinder Subaru, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its October 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 5%. Its car sales rose 10% but its truck sales fell 5%.
Mazda, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its October 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 5%. Its car sales rose 6%, but its truck sales fell 33%.
In summary, the October 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Honda, and Subaru were very good, with increases of 5%, 4%, and 5%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its October sales plunge 23%. Most likely GM should fire all of its sales and marketing people and hire only replacements with a proven ability to sell buffalo dung in a burger.
Chrysler, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its October 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Chrysler's marketing and sales departments may be a good place for GM to look for replacement personnel, but one word of caution: Chrysler's October sales were reported to have been propped up by the biggest of Big Three discounts and large fleet sales. Without the fleet sales, Chrysler's retail sales declined by double digits, per the Associated Press.
Ford, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its October 2005 U.S. auto sales plunge 23%.
Market shares through October changed modestly from those through September. GM lost .01 and Honda gained it.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, and Year-to-Date 2005, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 YTD 2005 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .23 .10 .06 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .27 .26 .04 -.22 -.08 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .18 .18 .07 -.11 -.08 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .13 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai won another battle; its October sales fell only 8% versus GM's dive of 23%.
U.S. October 2005 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1997-2001 RPA of .43, fell 59%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1997-2001 RPA of .29, fell 22%.
In the niche markets, Porsche October U.S. auto sales fell 11%, BMW sales rose 10%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 4%. Old line European nobility had not a bad month.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for October 2005 over October 2004 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 26 selling days in October 2005 and 27 in October 2004.
Source for October 2005 auto manufacturer sales data: "U.S. Auto Sales Table for October 2005," the Associated Press, November 1, 2005, available at Yahoo! News
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports October Sales," November 1, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2005110154667
Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Announces October Sales," November 1, 2005, available at http://www.nissannews.com/corporate/news/current/20051101093704.shtml
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Fifth Straight Month of Record Sales," November 1, 2005, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005110154825&mime=asc
Sources for Chrysler discounts and fleet sales: "U.S. Auto Sales Fall Sharply in October," the Associated Press, November 1, 2005, available at Yahoo! News, and "Sales Fall at GM and Ford," Reuters, November 1, 2005, available at Yahoo! News
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for July 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2005, p. D3 (See "By WSJ's Lot Stay Time, Toyota Has 8 of Hottest 12," Auto on Info, August 2005.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
Sources for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability ratings: "Asian Auto Brands' Reliability Uneven," Christine Tierney, Detroit News, October 27, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/27/C01-362825.htm and "Asian Vehicles Rank Low in Survey," Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today at Detroit Free Press, October 27, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/reliable27e_20051027.htm (The list in the Detroit Free Press omits the Toyota Echo in its list of small car recipients of CR's 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. To see a breakdown by manufacturer and line, go to "Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan's Infiniti Overwhelm CR's 2006 Most Reliable List," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
1 "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b
Links to Amazon.com
Musical Instruments Karl Willhelm violins Schiller cellos To view more string instruments, icons, and search phrases, click here. Wallets for Men and Women Rolf’s wallets The Sak wallets Sydney Love wallets Frontier Outfitters wallets Columbia Sportswear wallets Eagle Creek wallets To view more wallets, icons, and search phrases, click here. Handbags Gucci handbags Yves Saint Laurent handbags Prada handbags Fontanelli handbags Cappopera handbags
