Auto on Info  April 2005

In the U.S. in March 2005, Toyota and Nissan Sales Advance, Ford and GM Sales Drop

By James B. Bleeker

Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 12% in March 2005, over those of March 2004. Its U.S. car sales rose 25% and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 1%.

The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of March 2005, together with 1996-2000 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: March 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Change for March 2005 from March 2004	1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation				203,223	12.3%	.90
	Scion Division			13,855	156.6%	N/A
			xA	2,340	36.7%	N/A
			xB	5,281	43.2%	N/A
			tC	6,234	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			163,894	9.6%	.89
		Passenger Car		90,107	19.6%	N/A
			Camry1v,1r	38,263	5.0%	.87
			Corolla1r	32,005	9.3%	.93
			Prius*^,1r,1s	10,236	160.9%	N/A
		Light Truck		73,790	-0.6%	N/A
			Sienna*,1s (minivan)	13,287	-18.6%	.80
			Highlander1v,1r,1s (SUV)	13,325	13.4%	N/A
			4Runner1v,1s (SUV)	9,427	-9.4%	.94
			Land Cruiser1r,1s (SUV)	430	-25.7%	.88
			Tundra1r,1s (pickup truck)	12,950	43.8%	.871
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	13,729	-3.2%	.93
	Lexus Division			25,471	-1.9%	.92
		Passenger Car		12,657	-1.0%	N/A
			ES 3301	5,706	-20.1%	.932
			LS 430*^,1r,1s	2,537	-18.8%	.952
			GS 300	2,482	428.8%	N/A
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	766	-18.0%	N/A
		Light Truck		12,814	-2.8%	N/A
			RX 330*^,1,1s (SUV)	9,104	-3.0%	.881,2
			GX 4701s (SUV)	3,097	1.2%	N/A
			LX 470	613	-17.2%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. August 2004's, September 2004's, October 2004's, and November 2004's Hottest Ten were unavailable.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.
A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick.
A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick.
A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick.
A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in March 2005 over March 2004 were the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 914.6% to 727, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 428.8% to 2,482, the Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 160.9% to 10,236, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 117.0% to 8,625, the Toyota Tundra pickup truck, up 43.8% to 12,950, the Scion xB wagon, up 43.2% to 5,281, the Scion xA hatchback, up 36.7% to 2,340, the Toyota Highlander sport utility vehicle, up 13.4% to13,325, and the Toyota Corolla small sedan, up 9.3% to 32,005.

Toyota's Rising Stars in March 2005
2005 Lexus GS 430	2005 Lexus GS 300	2005 Toyota Prius
2005 Toyota Avalon	2005 Toyota Tundra	2005 Scion xB
2005 Scion xA	2005 Toyota Highlander	2005 Toyota Corolla
The above links are to onsite review pages.

Toyota's Scion line, up 156.6% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.

The Toyota Prius, up 160.9% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2005 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2005 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.¹ In short, the 2005 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, it is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick.

The Toyota Corolla, up 9.3% for the month, is an internationally renowned 38-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.

U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through March 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 50.7%.

Honda Motor Company, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its March 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 7%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in March 2005 over March 2004 were the Acura RL sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .90 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 193.8% to 1,376, the Acura TSX sedan (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 35.6% to 3,107, the Honda Odyssey minivan (1996-2000 RPA of .87 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, also a CR 2005 Top Pick), up 28.2% to 16,201, and the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the EX-L version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, also a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick), up 16.0% to 12,071. Through March 2005, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 4,386 vehicles, or 12.7%, and the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle (1996-2000 RPA of .99 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick) outsold the Toyota RAV4 (1996-2000 RPA of .93 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick) by 19,331 vehicles, or 123.4%.

Honda's Rising Stars in March 2005
2005 Acura RL	2005 Acura TSX	2005 Honda Odyssey
2005 Honda Pilot	2005 Honda CR-V
The above links are to onsite review pages.

Nissan Motor Company, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 13% in March 2005. Its U.S. car sales fell 1% and its U.S. truck sales rose 33%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in March 2005 over March 2004 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA or a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability), up 1,060.2% to 2,253, the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle(1996-2000 RPA of .84), up 189.2% to 7,345, the Nissan Armada sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the lowest category), up 50.4% to 4,156, the Nissan Titan pickup truck (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick), up 42.8% to 8,202, the Nissan Murano sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the SL version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 42.1% to 7,131, the Nissan Maxima sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .88 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the 3.5 SE version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 18.8% to 7,519, the Nissan Xterra sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .66), up 18.1% to 7,439, the Nissan Frontier pickup truck (1996-2000 RPA of .82), up 10.0% to 6,218, and the Infiniti G35 sport sedan  (no 1996-2000 RPA, but CR accords the G35 sport sedan and coupe a 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 10.0% to 4,851. Nissan's reliability scourge, the Nissan Quest minivan (1996-2000 RPA of .39), had its U.S. sales rise a meager 1.9% in March 2005.

Nissan's Rising Stars in March 2005
2005 Infiniti M45	2005 Nissan Pathfinder	2005 Nissan Armada
No photo available
2005 Nissan Titan	2005 Nissan Murano	2005 Nissan Maxima
2005 Nissan Xterra	2005 Nissan Frontier	2005 Infiniti G35

Subaru, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .82, saw its March 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 5%. Its car sales fell 7% and its truck sales fell 2%. Fuji Heavy Industries' models showing the largest sales gains in March 2005 over March 2004 were the Subaru Legacy sedan (for the Legacy sedan / Outback wagon, a 1996-2000 RPA of .81 and a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 24% to 1,968, and the Subaru Forester (1996-2000 RPA of .83 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and with the 2.5X version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick), up 3% to 5,851.

Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its March 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 1%.

In summary, the March 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Nissan, and Honda rose 12%, 13%, and 7%, respectively.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, March 2005 U.S. auto sales by General Motors, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, fell 1%. Sales fell in most of its lines - Oldsmobile (1996-2000 RPA of .26) down 97%, Buick (1996-2000 RPA of .49) down 26%, Pontiac (1996-2000 RPA of .23) down 12%, Hummer (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA) down 8%, Saturn (1996-2000 RPA of .35) down 6%, and Cadillac (1996-2000 RPA of .13) down 3%. GM lines with increasing sales were GMC (1996-2000 RPA of .27), up 4.2%, and Chevrolet (1996-2000 RPA of .32), up 6.5%. For the quarter, only the Chevrolet line showed a sales increase, up 2.4%.

Site Manager's Assessment: The increase in March and year-to-date sales of Chevrolet units should be good news for GM. They suggest that GM has solid control of that consumer segment who have few-to-no information acquisition skills and limited ability to assess information encountered. This command should give GM an opportunity to move to a lower market share with few, if any, disruptions. In particular, it should limit GM's need for recourse to a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization to at most one utilization within the next 15 years. As it seems likely that three such utilizations would precede a demise, GM's existence seems rather well assured for the next quarter century. So, in this regard, and to this extent, GM's CEO seems rather on the mark, provided that executive and managerial staff do not exhibit an incompetence exceeding reasonable expectation.

With regard to the 26% decline in Buick sales, some auto analysts have queried as to why this line continues to exist at all.

With regard to the Pontiac line, the recently launched Pontiac G6 is reported to already carry incentives totaling $3,600, and the Pontiac GTO has been voted third most likely to flop in an auto dealer survey.² (See also "With U.S. Consumer Shift Toward Quality, Moving New GM Models Off Lots Becomes Hard Sell: Raising Incentives and Lowering Credit Standards," AOI, February 2005.)

Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33, saw its March 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 4%. The Chrysler group of DaimlerChrysler AG may be benefiting from several factors: (1) Big Three rotation by Big Three consumers in their steadfast search for a quality vehicle, (2) relative inaccessibility of Top Four - Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru - dealerships in some parts of the U.S., (3) clever application of the novelty-by-grotesqueness stratagem, (4)Dietr Zetsche's very solid management talents, and (5) limited decision-making talents and skills at the lower levels of a population cross section.

Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its March 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 5%.

Toyota's and Nissan's new U.S. market shares continue to hold; GM's squeaked up one percentage point. The year-to-date and historical U.S. market shares, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .31, trounced GM in March with a 7% increase in U.S. auto sales.

U.S. March 2005 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, plummeted 18%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, plummeted 13%. Benefit from yesteryear's renown may be waning.

In the niche markets, Porsche March U.S. auto sales rose 2%, BMW sales fell 8%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 2%.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for March 2005 over March 2004 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 27 selling days in March 2005 and 26 in March 2004.

Source for March 2005 auto manufacturer sales data: "March 2005 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, available at Yahoo! News.

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports Best-Ever Sales; Record First Quarter," April 1, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20050401a

Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Achieves Record Breaking Sales," April 1, 2005, accessible at http://www.nissannews.com/nissan/sales/index.shtml

Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Strong March Sales," April 1, 2005, http://hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005040151858&mime=asc

Source for Subaru sales data: "Subaru Reports March Sales," April 1, 2005, accessible at www.media.subaru.com

Source for General Motors sales data: "GM Reports 426,114 Deliveries in March," April 1, 2005, accessible at http://media.gm.com

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for July 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2004, p. D4 (See "Toyota Has Four of July 2004's Hottest Selling Top Ten; Honda, BMW, and DaimlerChrysler - Each Two," AOI, August 2004.)

Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59

Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9

Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7

Source for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31

Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings: "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73

¹ "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b

² "GM Swerves with Dull Lineup," Detroit Free Press, March 29, 2005, http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/gm29e_20050329.htm

Correction: AOIAutoNews initially reported that March 2005 car sales by Subaru "rose 7%," but they in fact "fell 7%." This error was corrected April 14, 2004.