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News and Commentary: Auto News, Analysis and EditorialIn the U.S. in
December 2004, Sales by the Quality Four Soar; General
Motors and Ford Sales Drop
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Auto on Info January 2005 In the U.S. in December 2004, Sales by the Quality Four Soar; General Motors and Ford Sales Drop Nissan, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 33% in December 2004, over those of December 2003. Its U.S. car sales rose 16% and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 54%. Nissan's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were up 24%. Toyota, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 18% in December 2004. Its U.S. car sale rose 29% and its U.S. truck sales rose 8%. Toyota's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were up 10%. The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's sales in the month of December 2004, together with 1996-2000 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in December 2004 over December 2003 were the Scion xA, up 358.6%, the Scion xB, up 326.0%, the Toyota Prius, up 50.4%, the Toyota Highlander SUV, up 41.2%, the Toyota Corolla, up 29.0%, the Toyota Tumdra pickup, up 22.6%, the Lexus ES 330, up 21.0%, the Lexus SC 430, up 18.6%, and the Lexus LX 470, up 17.2%. Toyota's Scion line, up 731.6% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart. The Toyota Prius, up 50.4% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2004 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the 2004 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its previous editions. Third, it is both a Consumer Reports Quick Pick and a CR Top Pick with a predicted reliability in the highest category. The Toyota Corolla, up 29.0% for the month, is an internationally renowned 38-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years. The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's sales for the calendar year of 2004, together with 1996-2000 model Reliability Percentrank averages. As above, those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue and that model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in 2004 over 2003 were the Scion xB, up 575.6%, the Scion xA, up 508.4%, the Toyota Prius, up 118.5%, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 50.3%, the Lexus LS 430, up 34.6%, the Lexus ES 330, up 15.1%, and the Lexus RX 330, up 15.0%. Sales of the Lexus LX 470 for all of 2004 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 37.8%. Honda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its December 2004 U.S. auto sales soar 30%. Honda's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were up 3%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in December 2004 over December 2003 were the Acura RL (1996-2000 RPA of .90), up 357.5%, the Acura TSX (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA), up 56.3%, the Honda Pilot SUV (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but a CR 2004 Top Pick), up 45.2%, the Honda Accord (1996-2000 RPA of .89), up 39.3%, the Honda Odyssey (1996-2000 RPA of .87), up 36.3%, the Honda CR-V SUV (1996-2000 RPA of .99), up 30.9%, and the Acura TL (1996-2000 RPA of .90), up 18.6%. In December 2004, the Honda Odyssey outsold the Toyota Sienna by 3,264 vehicles, although for all of 2004 the Sienna outsold the Odyssey by 4,881 vehicles or 3.2%. Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its December 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 13%. Mazda's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were up 2%. Subaru's December 2004 U.S. auto sales rose 22% and 2004 sales fell less than 1%. In summary, the December 2004 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were excellent; sales by Nissan, Honda, Subaru, and Toyota rose 33%, 30%, 22%, and 18%, respectively. Also excellent were the 2004 sales of Toyota and Nissan, up 10% and 24%, respectively. At the other end of the quality spectrum, December 2004 sales by General Motors, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, fell 7%, despite rebates of up to $8,000 per vehicle. GM's full-year U.S. sales were down only 1%, although in recent months GM has had problems convincing U.S. consumers to buy its vehicles, even with huge rebates and other incentives. Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33, saw its December 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 5%. Chrysler's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were up 3%. One arguable explanation for Chrysler's success of late, at least relative to GM's and Ford's sales performance, is that Chrysler has taken a Big Three novelty-by-grotesqueness strategy to an extreme and given it a well conceived selectivity of application. Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its December 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 4%. Ford's U.S. sales for all of 2004 were down 5%. The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .31, trounced GM in December with a 3% increase in U.S. auto sales (versus a 7% loss by GM). Hyundai's 2004 sales were up 4%, just a tad short of giving it a .03 U.S. market share. So, to win the race to natural market share, most likely GM must do much worse. Kia, too new in the U.S. to have a 1996-2000 RPA, experienced a 4% rise in December 2005 U.S. auto sales. Its 2004 U.S. sales were up 13% to 270,055, exceeding Subaru's 2004 sales by 44.1%. Kia is a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Company Limited and also has a .02 U.S. market share. U.S. auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, were down 20% for all of 2004, but sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, were up 3% for 2004. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Volvo had high Reliability Percentrank averages; from these it may still be benefiting. In the niche markets, Porsche December U.S. auto sales fell 7%, BMW sales were up 13%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 19%. Sales of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2001 Reliability Percentranks of .01, .15, .01, and 0.00, plunged 34%. For all of 2004, Porsche's U.S. sales were up 10%, BMW's U.S. sales were up 7%, Mercedes-Benz's U.S. sales were up 1%, and the U.S. sales of Mercedes' M-Class SUV plunged 25%. For 2005, the big questions are: Will the shift toward quality and abandonment of GM products accelerate, remain about the same as in the second half of 2004, or subside some? And if it accelerates, can a year for the demise of GM be projected? In any event, it seems likely that GM will go all out in clever marketing ploys to convince U.S. consumers that they should pay for a GM vehicle more than it costs to produce it, so 2005 should be an interesting, exciting, and entertaining year. Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Source for December 2004 and calendar year 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2005, page B3, "Automobile Sales Statistics," and "December 2004 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, available at Yahoo! News. In computing the daily selling rate percentage changes, the latter correctly takes account of the fact that the number of selling days in December 2004 (27) differs from the number of selling days in December 2003 (26). However, Mazda's December 2004 car sales were reported, in the Associated Press article, to be down 7%, when in fact they were down 17%. Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reaches Two Million in Sales for the First Time in 47-Year History," January 4, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20050104b Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Sets New All-Time Sales Record," January 4, 2005, http://hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005010455134&mime=asc Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP Source for July 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2004, p. D4 (See "Toyota Has Four of July 2004's Hottest Selling Top Ten; Honda, BMW, and DaimlerChrysler - Each Two," AOI, August 2004.) Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59 Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9 1 "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b |
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