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7. The Toyota Corolla: A Legend Dead

Chart XXI depicts the Reliability Index Values of the Toyota Corolla.

In this chart, we see a sharp drop in RIVs from manufacturing years 1989-1990 to manufacturing years 1990-1991, one far greater than the flux anticipated from Chart XVII or Chart XX. And from Table I, we see that for manufacturing years 1990-1991, the Corolla not only dropped out of the Top Five models, it dropped out of the Top Ten entirely. While it seems nearly certain that the increased U.S. production and increased U.S. parts sourcing dealt this deadly blow, it remains a matter to be studied.

From Chart XXI, we also see that the changes from 1987-1988 to 1988-1989 and from 1988-1989 to 1989-1990 fall well within the anticipated flux of Chart XVII, Chart XVIII or Chart XIX. Hence, the RIV was rather steady within the 6-year history prior to its collapse. Nonetheless, one of the great questions of motor vehicle history is, “What was the Reliability Index Value of this venerable model prior to the impairments inflicted and adulterations suffered by the commencement of U.S. manufacturing?” On this we may be able to compute some estimates; however, I will likely leave this for the study of others.

Equally great in automotive history is the question, “When did the Toyota Corolla overtake the various models of Mercedes-Benz?” A friend guessed 1972, but my conjecture is 1967. Unfortunately, whatever data may be found may be insufficient ever to answer the question. It may prove to be the greatest mystery of automotive history.

Regardless, Toyota Corollas of the 1984 –1986 vintage are everywhere from the Beltways of major metropolitan areas to older, upper income neighborhoods to the remote areas where the closest mechanic is 100+ miles away. And if I were to guess the new car market shares for 1984, 1985 or 1986 based on motor vehicles found on the highways today, it would be as depicted in Chart XXII.

Of course, the Big Three fare much better if you count the motor vehicles rusting in backyards and junkyards. Also, in fairness, it should be observed that I am more aware of Toyota vehicles, so the estimate for Toyota’s market share based on my observation may be some, or quite a bit, on the high side.

Refining Chart XXII by more exacting observational standards would be an excellent project for a middle school or high school science fair.

In summary, the Toyota Corolla was a truly venerable model, and it is very unfortunate that Toyota Motor Corporation chose to kill it for those with made in Japan Toyota experiences. However, in fairness, three points should be noted. Firstly, Toyota Motor Corporation may have concluded that most people who buy a Corolla will likely never buy another, as they will own and run their Corolla until the soonest to occur of the following: death, significant growth in family size, or loss of such agility as to preclude easy entrance and exit. In the last two instances, the Corolla owner will be ripe for a larger made in Japan motor vehicle. Secondly, all RAV4s are made only in Japan and they serve in the 1990s much the same function as did the Corolla liftback in the 1980s. Finally, for those with only made in U.S.A. experiences, the Corolla is still a great (maybe, extraordinary) model.

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