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3.  The Losers

In Table V we list all of the models that had a loss greater than .05 in their Reliability Index Value from 1987-1988 to 1992-1993, together with their respective losses, 1987-1988 Reliability Index Values and 1992-1993 Reliability Index Values.

The drop in the Reliability Index Value of the Pontiac Grand Prix is questionable and should be viewed with a lot of skepticism, as its RIV for 1987-1988 is anomalously high relative to both the 1987-1988 RIVs of all other Pontiac models and the RIVs of the Pontiac Grand Prix for all subsequent years.

The drop in the RIV of the Toyota Corolla reflects the tragic death of this legend. For a discussion, see Reliability Tables and Charts, B. The Present Situation, 7. The Toyota Corolla: A Legend Dead. Here we simply observe that without increased U.S. parts sourcing and U.S. assembly, the Reliability Index Value of this once venerable model may have remained Toyota’s highest, as may be seen by adding to the Corolla’s 1987-1988 Reliability Index Value the change in Toyota’s Reliability Index Average from 1987-1988 to 1992-1993, although the resulting sum, .451, is a tad less than the 1992-1993 RIV of the Lexus LS400, .479. When account is taken of what the Corolla might, or should, have become without U.S. parts sourcing and U.S. assembly, the death of this legend is a particularly horrid one.

However, in fairness, it should again be noted that while for those with made in Japan Toyota experiences, ownership of the current Corolla may be particularly unpleasant, for those with only made in U.S.A. auto experiences, ownership of the current Corolla may be a rather extraordinarily pleasant experience.

 4.  The Corolla: A Forerunner of Things to Come?

The plunge in the Reliability Index Value of the Toyota Corolla graphed in Chart XXI and reflected in Table V above is likely the best indicator as to the future directions of the RIVs for the Corolla, the Toyota Camry and Toyota’s pickup models. With the increased U.S. parts sourcing and assembly of all of the foregoing since 1993, my best prognostication is that all three will experience one or more drops in their RIV in the next decade: the Corolla for manufacturing years 2000-2001, the Camry for 1994-1995 and 2001-2002, and the Toyota pickup models for 1995-1996. However, for the Camry, we may see a rather steady decline instead of two precipitous drops. Also, predictions are hampered by reputations that change people’s psychology, color recollections, distort reportings and often long outlive reality. So, subscribers to Consumer Reports may have underreported “serious problems” for the Corolla one or more years prior to the collapse noted in Chart XXI and Table I. And some underreporting may still be occurring.

One piece of evidence that there is underreporting for the Camry is the fact that it is very difficult to purchase a made in Japan Camry from the early nineties, as the made in Japan Camrys often sell nearly immediately, while at the same time nearly every Toyota dealership and e-listing seems to be well inventoried with made in U.S.A. Camrys from the same period. For example, on December 24, 2000, all ten cars.com listings of 1993 Camries within a 500-mile radius of St. Cloud, Minnesota, for which information as to site of manufacture was available, were North American made, and 9 of the 10 carsoup.com listings of 1993 Camrys, with such information available, were North American made. (I sent enquiries as to availability of the one made in Japan 1993 Camry listed in carsoup.com, but received no reply, so this most likely had been sold, but not yet removed from the list.) As I have never met a Toyota Camry owner with such refinement as to be able to tell at once whether his vehicle was U.S. made or made in Japan, or even to be able to tell the difference in the beginning alphanumeric of the vehicle identification number for a made in Japan Camry and a U.S. made Camry, it seems certain that when people go shopping for a used Camry, it is something that they see, hear or feel in the vehicle that draws them to a made in Japan Camry and repulses them from a made in U.S.A. Camry. However, in Table I we still see no drop in the RIV of the Camry.

We place the December 24^th unavailability of made in Japan Camrys and the easy availability (glut) of North American made Camrys into Table VI.

Table VI is the best evidence that we have that there is a reliability gap between a made in Japan Camry and a North American made Camry. However, the table may as well reflect a durability gap, a dependability gap, a noise gap, an operation gap and a comfort gap between a made in Japan Camry and a North American made Camry. One cautionary remark: The data is small and should be accumulated every six months for at least two years.

Consumer Reports could help shed light on the dilapidation of the Camry from increased U.S. assembly and parts sourcing, by inquiring as to site of manufacture of each Camry in its questionnaire and reporting separate results for made in Japan Camrys and North American made Camrys. This should highlight a decline in reliability by reason of North American assembly and parts sourcing sooner than would a single table, as for a single table we most likely must wait until North American made Camrys dominated North American sales (more or less, depending upon how bad U.S. components and assembly are and how good are made in Japan components). However, creating separate tables for made in Japan Camrys and North American made Camrys is likely so politically incorrect as to be impossible for the magazine. Also, it poses the practical problem as to how accurate might be the characterization “made in Japan” or “made in U.S.A.,” as many subscribers may not be willing to take the time to find the vehicle identification number or may simply assume that theirs is made in Japan.

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