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Introduction

The remainder of this review is divided into the following sections: (1) tables and charts that describe mainly in one category, reliability, and mainly by one index the great gulf between the Reliable Two and the Big Three, both at the present and over time, (2) a proof that the house sparrow is of a higher mental order than the bottom two thirds of the U.S. population, (3) a discussion of the ramifications of the great gulf, (4) suggestions for interesting areas of research, and (5) a conclusion. As always, comments and criticisms are welcome, as they will hopefully make for a better and more accurate review in the future.

 Reliability Tables and Charts

A.  An Overview

 1. Methodology

The methodology remains the same as for previous years. To generate the reliability index value for a motor vehicle model, I used the 1996-1998 Buying Guides by the Consumers Union and the April 1998, the April 1999 and April 2000 issues of Consumer Reports. In the “Reliability Records” portion of the 1996 Buying Guide appear charts for many of the motor vehicle models sold in the U.S. In each model chart, each of 16 trouble spots is rated for each of eight years, from 1987 through 1994. To compute an index value for a motor vehicle model manufactured in the years of 1987-1988, I did the following:

1.      I eliminated the trouble spots of “Manual Transmission,” “Clutch,” “Brakes” and “Exhaust.” The first two I eliminated as most vehicles of any description come with automatic transmission, by far the more popular choice. The latter two I eliminated as I find it nearly impossible to imagine that brake work today is anything other than replacement of brake linings/pads and exhaust work is simply replacement of muffler and/or exhaust pipes, something that now carries a lifetime warranty, although my imagination may be somewhat limited by my rather exclusive use of a 1984 Corolla liftback for the past 16 1/2 years.

2.   If any of Consumer Reports ratings for the remaining 12 trouble spots were missing (due to insufficient data) for either of the two years, the model received no index value. Otherwise, I counted the number of remaining trouble spots in the chart that earned Consumer Reports lowest rating (highest repair frequency) in either of the two model years and multiplied this count by –1. I then counted the number of remaining trouble spots in the chart that earned Consumer Reports second lowest rating (second highest repair frequency) in either of the two model years and multiplied this count by –1/2. I then counted the number of remaining trouble spots that earned Consumer Reports highest rating (lowest repair frequency) in either of the two model years and multiplied this count by +1. I then counted the number of remaining trouble spots that earned Consumer Reports second highest rating (second lowest repair frequency) in either of the two model years and multiplied this count by +1/2.

 3.   I took the four numbers that I obtained in 2, added them together and divided by 24. This is the model’s Reliability Index Value for the pairs of manufacturing years 1987-1988.

So, the index value for a model manufactured in the years of 1987-1988 may vary from +1, the highest value, to –1, the lowest value.

Similarly, Reliability Index Values for motor vehicle models manufactured in the years of 1988-1989 were obtained from the 1997 Buying Guide, Reliability Index Values for motor vehicle models manufactured in 1989-1990 were obtained from the 1998 Buying Guide, Reliability Index Values for motor vehicle models manufactured in the years 1990-1991 were obtained from the April 1998 issue of Consumer Reports, and Reliability Index Values for motor vehicle models manufactured in the years 1991-1992 were obtained from the April 1999 issue of Consumer Reports. The Reliability Index Values for motor vehicle models manufactured in the years 1992-1993 were obtained from the April 2000 issue of Consumer Reports in a similar manner as well; however, as Consumer Reports had by its April 2000 issue eliminated the trouble spots of “Manual Transmission” and “Clutch,” it was unnecessary for me to do so as part of the above step 1.

Note that from the method of computation and Consumer Reports timing of its surveys, the Reliability Index Values reflect a model’s performance as roughly a 6 ½- and 7 ½-year old model. This was done with the intent to glean, in some limited way, its durability as well.

The Reliability Index Averages for each line, each manufacturer, the Reliable Two (Toyota and Honda), the Top Four (Toyota, Honda, Subaru and Nissan), the Middle Five (Mazda, Volvo, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Mitsubishi), the Big Three (General Motors, Ford and Chrysler) and the Bottom Four (Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler) were then computed, by Microsoft’s Excel software, for each pair of manufacturing years. These computations used those models for which there was sufficient data to ascribe a Reliability Index Value, except that the old foreign made and/or foreign engineered Geo line, and progeny, are omitted from General Motor’s averages and that the Mitsubishi made Colt is omitted from Chrysler’s averages. Thus, in particular, the averages for the Reliable Two, the Top Four, the Middle Five, the Big Three and the Bottom Four are not averages of line or manufacturer averages, but are averages of the Reliability Index Values of the included models. Also note that all averages are unweighted by sales.

One caveat to what follows: Counts and computations were many, so no doubt some errors exist, but hopefully no Reliability Index Value is off by more than .05. Should anyone find an error, please kindly bring it to my attention. Your kind help in making for a more accurate document will be sincerely appreciated.

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